A Correlation of Global Warming, Ice Ages, and Sea Level

  1. The tide is turning. The Petition Project has a wonderful summary, and shows that at least 31,000 scientists, including me, do not participate in the "global warming consensus." (Or as I call it Al-Gore-Acal Warming, since it is base on allegorical evidence.)
  2. Mars is Warming Too: National Geographic
  3. And we have been cooling for the last 10 years!
  4. For you liberal arts majors, here is a pictured filled, accurate summary of the global warming issues.
  5. Overview: This is the most precise, short listing of the Ice Age and Global Warming cycles I have seen. It shows that the ice age cycle last 100,000 to 150,000 years, of which about 20,000 of it is warming. We have been in that 20,000 year warm period for the last 10,000 -12,000 years. This means 100,000 years of ice is just "around the corner."
    It has many links to the academic research that support the correlations of ice ages and what we now call global warming.
  6. Estimate of Ice on the Ground
    Both Greenland and the Antarctic are increasing their ice. See here. Remember that although the ice sheet is retreating, the total volume of ice, including the ground ice, is increasing.
  7. Melting Land Ice can raise the sea 80 meters
    See here.
    But the sea has been at most +30 meters during the last few ice ages. See below.
  8. A good description of the ice ages
    See Here..
    Note the cycles listed here.
  9. An Estimate of the sea level rise: 2.5-3mm
    See Here.
  10. 1987 Estimate 1-1.5mm/yr
    This link has been removed. You have to take my word for it: It used to say " Estimate 1-1.5mm/yr".
    For the mathematically motivated, a discussion on the effect of sea level and global warming.
  11. 2001 Estimate: 1-2.5mm
    This link has also been removed.
  12. The new IPCC report lowers the sea level rise by another 30%. Conclusion: The "officially estimated" rate of sea level rise is declining.
    The fourth IPCC report is out, here. That summary by the bureaucrats, so you should rather read the full report, at the IPCC web site. (I wrote the above before climate gate. Climate Gate confirmed my suspicions. )
    Or if you wish, read an independent summary written by scientists that are not politically motivated here.
    A quote from the latter:
    "The climate in most places has undergone minor changes over the past 200 years....There is no compelling evidence that dangerous or unprecedented changes are underway."
  13. Multi-Grid Problems:
    We refer to scale issues as multi-grid problems: How can a proxy for a 100 year period be compared to a daily measurement.
    This article, and this article describe the difficulties.
    And here is a recent remark on one of the participants in the hockey stick controversy, Hans von Storch. The point is, we are still dealing with a theory, and testing that theory is a good thing.
    I expect we will find that all of the perceived rapid global warming will simply be a multi-grid problem.
  14. An objective article from a global warming scientist, DANIEL B. BOTKIN
  15. A recent exchange in "Science" about how the 20th Century warmth may or may not be local.
    The article, The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years Timothy J. Osborn* and Keith R. Briffa
    The refutation.
    The Response
    The above shows that this is all still a theory.
  16. Ethanol has a bigger carbon footprint than natural gas.
  17. And finally, this is ironic: According to Science Magazine, If you believe CO2 causes global warming, then Ethanol causes global warming!

Conclusion

The ice caps have been melted in the past. Although the melting should cause a rise of 80 meters, the sea level went up at most 30 meters. Since the last ice age 20,000 years ago, the sea level has been increasing an average of 6mm/yr, and is currently rising 1-3mm/yr. We do not know that warming will raise the sea level. It may lower it. All recently measured rise in sea levels are less than or equal 3mm/yr, which is one-half the rate of the last 20,000 years. We came out of a mini-ice age over the last 400 years, and that has contaminated recent estimates. We can not separate the mini-ice age effect and the human-made global warming effect. In fact they was also another mini-ice age around 300-500 AD that led to the fall of the Roman Empire. The Rhine River froze over, and that allowed the barbarians to invade the empire. The beat goes one. The conclusion: There is global warming. In fact there are several types of global warming, i.e. the ice-age one (20,000 years), the mini-ice age (500 years), and the alleged human made one. The only certain thing is that, to date, current measurements verify that the latter is the least significant.

A Good Summary

For a accurate scientific summary of global warming, see: Jack Hollander in the . He explains in that article the cost of a quick reaction to the perceived global warning threat. The conclusion is that the perceived benefits of Kyoto Treaty are far out weighed by the costs.
Bill Kamp