A Correlation of Global Warming, Ice Ages, and Sea Level
- The tide is turning. The
Petition Project has a wonderful summary, and shows that at
least 31,000 scientists, including me, do not participate in the "global warming consensus." (Or as I call it Al-Gore-Acal Warming, since it is
base on allegorical evidence.)
Mars is Warming Too: National Geographic
- And we have been cooling for the last 10 years!
- For you liberal arts majors, here is a pictured filled, accurate summary of the global warming issues.
Overview: This is the most precise, short listing of
the Ice Age and Global Warming cycles I have seen.
It shows that the ice age cycle last 100,000 to 150,000 years,
of which about 20,000 of it is warming. We have been in that 20,000
year warm period for the last 10,000 -12,000 years.
This means 100,000 years of ice is just "around the corner."
It has many links to the academic research that support the
ice ages and what we now call global warming.
Estimate of Ice on the Ground
Both Greenland and the Antarctic are increasing their ice.
Remember that although the ice sheet is retreating, the total volume of ice,
including the ground ice, is increasing.
Melting Land Ice can raise the sea 80 meters
the sea has been at most +30 meters during
the last few ice ages. See below.
A good description of the ice ages
Note the cycles listed here.
- An Estimate of the sea level rise: 2.5-3mm
1987 Estimate 1-1.5mm/yr
This link has been removed.
You have to take my word for it: It used to say " Estimate 1-1.5mm/yr".
For the mathematically motivated, a discussion on the effect of sea level and global warming.
2001 Estimate: 1-2.5mm
This link has also been removed.
- The new IPCC report lowers
the sea level rise by another 30%. Conclusion: The "officially estimated" rate of sea level rise is declining.
The fourth IPCC report is out,
That summary by the bureaucrats, so you should rather read the
IPCC web site.
(I wrote the above before climate gate. Climate Gate confirmed my suspicions.
Or if you wish, read an independent summary written by scientists
that are not politically motivated
A quote from the latter:
"The climate in most places has undergone minor changes over the past
200 years....There is no compelling evidence that dangerous or unprecedented
changes are underway."
- Multi-Grid Problems:
We refer to scale issues as multi-grid problems: How can a proxy for a 100 year period be compared to a daily measurement.
article describe the difficulties.
And here is a recent remark on one of the participants in the hockey stick controversy,
Hans von Storch. The point is, we are still dealing with a theory, and testing that theory is a good thing.
I expect we will find that all of the perceived rapid global warming will simply be a multi-grid problem.
- An objective article from a global warming scientist,
DANIEL B. BOTKIN
A recent exchange in "Science" about how the 20th Century warmth may or may not be local.
The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years
Timothy J. Osborn* and Keith R. Briffa
The above shows that this is all still a theory.
- Ethanol has a bigger carbon footprint than natural gas.
- And finally, this is ironic: According to Science Magazine, If you believe CO2 causes global warming, then Ethanol causes global warming!
The ice caps have been melted in the past.
Although the melting should cause a rise of 80 meters, the sea level
went up at most 30 meters. Since the last ice age 20,000 years ago,
the sea level has been increasing an average of 6mm/yr, and is
currently rising 1-3mm/yr. We do not know that warming will raise the
sea level. It may lower it. All recently measured rise in sea levels
are less than or equal 3mm/yr, which is one-half the rate of the last
20,000 years. We came out of a mini-ice age over the last 400 years,
and that has contaminated recent estimates. We can not separate the
mini-ice age effect and the human-made global warming effect. In fact
they was also another mini-ice age around 300-500 AD that led to the
fall of the Roman Empire. The Rhine River froze over, and that allowed
the barbarians to invade the empire. The beat goes one. The
conclusion: There is global warming. In fact there are several types
of global warming, i.e. the ice-age one (20,000 years), the mini-ice
age (500 years), and the alleged human made one. The only certain
thing is that, to date, current measurements verify that the latter is
the least significant.
A Good Summary
For a accurate scientific summary of global warming, see:
Jack Hollander in the
. He explains in that article the cost of a
quick reaction to the perceived global warning threat.
The conclusion is that the perceived benefits of
are far out weighed by the costs.